Relevance: GS-2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Key Phrases: SIPRI’s, Global nuclear arsenal, Nuclear weapons, Military spending, global arms imports, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, Global security climate.

Context:

• The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its yearbook a few days back highlighting some worrying trends of the past year in international security. The expected rise of the global nuclear arsenal was the chief cause of concern among SIPRI experts. The comprehensive report claims that while absolute numbers of nuclear arsenal have reduced, they are expected to grow over the next decade.

Trends in Military Spending:

• During 2012-2021, military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has largely been stable. If anything, the average worldwide trend has been slightly downward.
• Russia leads the charge in absolute numbers of nuclear inventory (5977 against the U.S.’s 5428), however it is the U.S. that has the largest number of deployed warheads (1744 against Russia’s 1588).
• The U.K. has 225 nuclear weapons in its inventory, while France has 290, China has 350, India has 160, Pakistan has 165. Israel is estimated to have 90 and North Korea 20.
• Five Largest Spenders in 2021:
  • The U.S,
  • China,
  • India,
  • The U.K and
  • Russia
• The global world military expenditure as a share of the world gross domestic product (GDP), fell by 0.1 percentage points, from 2.3% in 2020 to 2.2% in 2021.
• Five Largest spenders together accounted for 62% of expenditure and the U.S. and China alone accounted for 52%.
• India’s military spending of $76.6 billion ranked third highest in the world.

What about Global Arms Imports?

• Military modernisation is seen to be a global trend. All nuclear weapon owning states have, over the years, stated and worked upon their intention to modernise multiple facets of their armed forces—ranging from the development of newer and more efficient nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles to the growing spread of the use of missile defence systems which may result in aggravating security concerns for other countries.
• The SIPRI yearbook has highlighted India as being the top weapons importer during the 2017-2021 period. Other countries to feature in the top five arms importers list include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, China, and Australia. According to SIPRI, these five nation states account for 38% of total global arms import.
• The region that received the largest volume of major arms supplies in 2016-20 was Asia and Oceania, accounting for 42% of the global total, followed by the Middle East, which received 33%.

What are the key developments/concerns flagged by the yearbook?

• Some of the worrying indicators of an unstable system
  • Low level border clashes between India and Pakistan
  • The civil war in Afghanistan
  • The armed conflict in Myanmar
• Three cause of concern trends:
  • Chinese-American rivalry
  • Involvement of state and non-state actors in multiple conflicts
  • The challenge that climatic and weather hazards pose.
• It is important to note here that the threat posed by climate change seems to feature in the report only nominally.
• The marginal downsizing observed in the nuclear arsenal has come mostly from the U.S. and Russia dismantling retired warheads. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised some serious eyebrows because of the continuous rhetoric from the Kremlin over them not shying away from the use of nuclear weapons.
• China’s recent activities surrounding construction of 300 new nuclear missile silos have also been turning heads. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese Defence Minister, Wei Fenghe, claimed that while they have made “impressive progress” vis-à-vis their nuclear arsenal, the primary purpose of said arsenal continues to be self-defence.
• Over in the subcontinent, India and Pakistan seem to be making gains over their nuclear arsenal (in absolute numbers) while also looking at the development and procurement of newer and more efficient forms of delivery systems.

Several Landmarks in the Nuclear Disarmament:

• New START: US-Russian arms control agreement New START was extended for five years.
• Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): The start of talks on the USA rejoining, and Iran returning to compliance with the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Nuclear-armed permanent members (P5) of the United Nations Security Council reaffirmed their commitment to complying with non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and pledges as well as their obligations under the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Way Forward:

• The recent geopolitical events transpiring around the world in practically all regions have made the global security climate more unstable. A sense of precariousness lulls the air. It is further aided by actions of authoritarian leaders of not just non-democratic systems but also of strongmen leaders of democratic systems. The muscular military policies of these nations coupled with the continuous use of rhetoric that fuel public sentiment over the state’s use of military assets make ripe conditions for the situation to further deteriorate. A strong political opposition would be needed to help keep the ruling dispensation in check.
• Furthermore, the two largest nuclear weapons-holding states need to take on a more engaging role in the international arena. SIPRI’s yearbook, while not being devoid of some challenges, forces us to look critically at how the global disarmament project seems to be going..

Source: The Hindu 

Mains Question:

Q. Recent geopolitical events transpiring around the world in practically all regions have made the global security climate more unstable, in this scenario discuss the importance of nuclear disarmament to make world safe from nuclear war. Examine.