Relevance: GS-2 : Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Key phrases: Ukraine Crisis, Donbas Region, Donetsk, Luhansk, MINSK Agreement, DNR/DPR and LNR/LPR

Why in News ?

• Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and paved the way to provide them military support.
• Putin explained that the reason behind the recognition is due to Ukraine ignoring these regions after the 2014 coup.

Key Highlights

• As tensions spiral between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the rebel-held self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR/DPR and LNR/LPR) in Eastern Ukraine have started evacuating civilians to the Rostov region in Russia claiming an impending Ukrainian military offensive.
• Putin has ordered Russian troops into these areas for “peacekeeping”.
• The deployment is viewed as bringing Russia and the US-European alliance closer to war.
• Though the international community has not yet pronounced it an invasion of Ukraine.
• Efforts continue to find a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

About Two Breakaway Areas

• Location
  • Luhansk and Donetsk are areas in south-eastern Ukraine collectively known as the Donbass that borders Russia.
• Economical Significance
  • Both are the major industrial centres in an area.
  • Donbass has the largest coal reserves in Ukraine.
• Population
  • Donetsk, with a population of about 2 million, is the fifth largest city in Ukraine, and is known for a wide range of metallurgical industries.
  • Luhansk, also an industrial city centered on metal industries, has a population of 1.5 million.
  • In 2013 the population of Donetsk oblast was 4.43 million, which constituted 10% of the overall Ukrainian population, making it the most populous and most densely populated region of the country.
• Ethnicity
  • Almost 40% of the people in these two areas are ethnic Russians, forming the largest minority in the Donbass region.
  • The Russian language is today spoken by a majority of the people in both Donetsk and Luhansk, as even non-native Russians identify themselves as Russian speakers.
  • Here more than 68.8% of the population consider themselves Russian speakers, while 30.0% consider themselves Ukrainian speakers.
  • While ethnic Russians were present in large numbers in the region even in the pre-war years as part of the industrial workforce, it was after the war, when Stalin undertook a reconstruction of the Donbass, that waves of Russians arrived in the region.
  • The affinity with Russia is pronounced both in culture and in politics.
• They had declared themselves independent of Ukraine in 2014, encouraged by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but had remained unrecognized by Moscow and the international community.
• Western intelligence reports have spoken about the presence of Russian troops in these two areas since then, but this was denied by Russia.

Background of the Crisis

• The Donbass region has been at the centre of the conflict since March 2014 when Moscow invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
• In April, pro-Russia rebels began seizing territory (with Russia supporting them through hybrid warfare) in Eastern Ukraine .
• In May 2014, the rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions held a referendum to declare independence from Ukraine.
• Since then, these predominantly Russian speaking regions within Ukraine have been witnessing shelling and skirmishes between the rebels and Ukrainian forces.
  • It led to the loss of over 14,000 lives by most estimates, creating around 1.5 million registered Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and destruction of the local economy.
• What has changed now is that the shelling has intensified since last October when Russia began amassing troops along the borders with Ukraine.
• If the situation in the Donbass escalates, the possibility of a war cannot be dismissed.
• One way to prevent the outbreak of a war would be to implement the Minsk agreements immediately, as Russia has suggested.

Minsk Agreements

• There are two Minsk agreements, Minsk 1 and Minsk 2, named after the Belarussian capital Minsk where the talks were held.
• Minsk 1
  • It was written in September 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, i.e. Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) with mediation by France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format.
  • Under Minsk 1, Ukraine and the Russia-backed rebels agreed on a 12-point ceasefire deal, which included prisoner exchanges, delivery of humanitarian assistance, and the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
  • However, due to violations by both sides, the agreement did not last long.
• Minsk 2
  • Following this, as the rebels moved further into Ukraine, in February 2015, representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk signed a 13-point agreement , now known as the Minsk 2 accord.
  • The new agreement had provisions for an immediate cease-fire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, OSCE monitoring, dialogue on interim self-government for Donetsk and Luhansk, in accordance with Ukrainian law.
  • The Provisions also include acknowledgement of special status by parliament, pardon and amnesty for fighters, exchange of hostages and prisoners, humanitarian aid, constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralization, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk, elections in Donetsk and Luhansk, withdrawal of foreign armed formations, military equipment, mercenaries, full Ukrainian Government control throughout the conflict zone and calls to Ukraine to restore control of state borders, etc.
• However, these provisions have not been implemented because of what is popularly known as the ‘Minsk Conundrum’.
• This essentially means that Ukraine and Russia have contradictory interpretations about the agreement, particularly about when each part of the agreement is to be fulfilled.
• Russian Interpretation
  • Russia believes that the agreement means that Ukraine has to grant the Russia-backed rebels in Donbas comprehensive autonomy and representation in the central Government, effectively giving Russia a veto over Ukraine’s foreign policy.
  • Only when this is done is Russia ready to hand over control of the Russia-Ukraine border to Ukraine.
• Ukraine Interpretation
  • Ukraine, on the other hand, feels that Minsk 2 allows it to first re-establish control over Donbas, then give it control of the Russia-Ukraine border, elections in the Donbas, and a limited devolution of power to the rebels - in that sequence.
  • Ukraine believes the accord supports its sovereignty fully, Russia believes it only gives Ukraine limited sovereignty.
• Thus, the Minsk 2 agreement has been rightly criticized for being too hastily drafted, ambiguous and contradictory, making it difficult to implement.
• Implementation of the MINSK Accord
  • Ukraine has been reluctant to implement it for fear of Balkanisation of the country as other regions might also come up with such demands.
    • Because any government which agrees to the kind of autonomy for LPR and DPR that Russia wants will lose domestic support.
  • Russia, on the other hand, wants it to be implemented because it will guarantee protection of the Russian minority and Russian language and culture while increasing its leverage over Ukraine.

West’s Interest

• If US warnings of an invasion are borne out, it could mark the worst European security crisis since World War II, dwarfing the tensions triggered by Putin's takeover of Crimea and the earlier fighting in eastern Ukraine.
• The US, EU and UK have been finalizing a package of sanctions if Russia does invade.
• Potential measures include targeting its billionaires, extra restrictions on sovereign debt, disrupting lenders' ability to use dollars or blocking the new Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
• The West also has invested a lot financially in Ukraine's success.
• The International Monetary Fund has offered support to the nation, billions of dollars have flowed in from the World Bank and the European Union, and the US has provided loan guarantees and military aid.

Way Forwards

• One of the principal demands Russia has made of the West is the immediate implementation of the Minsk 2 agreement.
• While the agreement is far from ideal, it could be a baseline from which a diplomatic solution to the current crisis could be found and reviving it could be the ‘only path on which peace can be built’ as French President Emmanuel Macron has said.
• For Ukraine, it could help it gain control over its borders and end the threat of a Russian invasion for the time being.
• While for Russia it could be a way to ensure that Ukraine never becomes a part of NATO and ensure that Russian language and culture are protected under a new federal Constitution in Ukraine.
• However, there could be very prolonged negotiations on the type of autonomy the LNR and DPR could get.
• The latest news about a Biden-Putin summit followed by talks among all relevant parties, might just be the start to dialling back this crisis which could otherwise escalate into a cataclysmic war.

Conclusion

• Even after all this, Putin may be still hopeful of pulling off a diplomatic victory and getting western powers to address his demands for the restructuring of the European security framework.
• After all, Europe and the US have continued to engage with Russia diplomatically even after Crimea.
• French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested another Biden-Putin summit.
• The world is hanging to the hope that war, whose consequences will be felt across the globe, can yet be averted.

Source: The Hindu, Indian Express

Mains Question:

Q. Discuss the significance of the MINSK Agreements with reference to Russia- Ukraine Crisis.