Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, Important International institutions, agencies and fora their structure, mandate.

Relevance:GS-3: Security challenges and their management in border areas - linkages of organized crime with terrorism.

Key Phrases: Nuclear Doctrine of India, No First Use Policy, Minimum Credible Deterrence, AUKUS, INFRUS

Context

• Continuous growth in Chinese military power and rapid modernization of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal raised concerns for both India and Japan. Ongoing debate on atomic options worldwide has brought into discussion the security threats for Delhi and Tokyo.

Background

• India is a nuclear power and it is surrounded by two nuclear capable countries i.e. China and Pakistan which are posing threat to India’s security due to their hostile nature. Similarly Japan has security concerns due to the presence of nuclear powers in its neighborhood, especially China. Both India and Japan were not much concerned about Chinese nuclear weapons until now. But there are few emerging factors which compel them to think otherwise.

Compelling reasons for India and Japan to rethink

• China is modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of the general military transformation e.g. China’s arsenal could grow to 1,000 warheads by 2030 from about 350 now.
• China has taken a more muscular approach to its territorial disputes, including with India (Himalayan front) and Japan (East China Sea) through its tactics of salami slicing and coercive diplomacy.
• Learning from the Ukraine crisis that the rest of the world remains reluctant to directly confront the aggression of nuclear powered states e.g. Russia’s clear threat to use nuclear weapons stopped the US and NATO from joining the war.

India and Japan: differences in approach

• Both Tokyo and Delhi are concerned about the posed common threat coming to both but there are some differences in approach followed by them due to different situations they are in at present. India is a full-fledged nuclear weapon power but Japan is not. Japan relies on the US nuclear umbrella for its security. This is probably the reason why Tokyo has woken up to the full implications of nuclear-armed Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while Delhi’s strategic discourse is yet to come.

Issue at hand for the world

• China is bound to raise its nuclear profile as it is locked in a confrontation with the US e.g. both are engaged in a trade war. As China closes the economic and military gap with the US, there is a darkening shadow over the credibility of the US-extended deterrence for Japan. This uncertainty is the main headache for Japan and is forcing Japan to aggressively consider “nuclear weapon sharing” with the US.
• India’s concern is more about whether the “nuclear restraint” and policy of “minimum deterrence” are enough to prevent China’s bullying. Recent news reports about China developing villages in border areas in India’s North are the recent bone of contention between Indo-China relations.

Way Forward

• The European model where several countries including Belgium, Italy, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have arrangements to participate in the US nuclear weapon deployment and use could be the best way forward.
  Few policymakers in Japan have rejected nuclear solutions to Japan’s problem of deterring China. Instead, they suggest raising the defense expenditure, developing sophisticated conventional weapons, beefing up the alliance with the US and widening the circle of Asian as well as European military partners.
• While Japan’s priority is to transform its conventional forces, India might need to consider both conventional and nuclear modernization.
• A strong Indian nuclear deterrent against China is critical for the geopolitical stability of Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Unlike in the past, the US should be prepared to facilitate India’s development of more sophisticated nuclear warheads as well as improve the survivability of the Indian deterrent against the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal. For instance, a tripartite agreement can be signed between India and US along with France (e.g. “INFRUS”) for the development of an Indian underwater deterrent based on ballistic missile carrying submarines and nuclear attack submarines.
• Apart from this, the international community must come forward to strategically and collectively oppose China’s military modernization, nuclear expansion and strategic assertiveness. India’s nuclear doctrine and a reluctance to rush into building an ever larger nuclear arsenal since 1998 show its commitment to making a peaceful, prosperous and nuclear-free world.

Sources: Indian Express

Mains Question:

Q. Discuss the relevance of India’s nuclear doctrine at present time where Chinese aggression and expansion in its neighborhood has been highlighted recently . [150 Words].