Date: 16/03/2023

Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Key Phrases: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, West Asia, Natural resources rich area, Landlocked country, Secure and Stable, Proxy war, Constructivist Approach, Ukraine war, Indian Ocean region, Nuclear deals.

Context:

• Recently, Saudi Arabia and Iran, represented by their national security advisers, signed an agreement in Beijing, to re-establish diplomatic ties, respect each other’s sovereignty and maintain non-interference in the other’s domestic affairs.
  • This agreement ends seven years of diplomatic estrangement between the two Gulf neighbors.

Background of Relations:

• The rivalry between the two dates back to pre-revolution Iran when they competed with each other for regional dominance.
• After the 1979 revolution brought down the Iranian monarchy and turned the country into a Shia theocratic republic, sectarian and ideological flavors were added to the mix.
• In recent times, it had turned into a cold war with both sides supporting their proxies across West Asia.
• Formal ties between them collapsed in 2016 after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was overrun by protesters following Riyadh’s execution of a revered Shia cleric.
  • Now, under China’s mediation, they have agreed to start a new beginning.

Provisions of Agreement:

• According to reports, Iran has agreed to prevent further attacks against Saudi Arabia, especially those from the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen (Iran backs Houthis, a Shia militia in Yemen while the Saudis back the government forces).
• Saudi Arabia agreed to rein in Iran International, a Farsi news channel that is critical of the Iranian regime (which the Iranian intelligence has termed a terrorist organization).
• The Foreign Ministers of both countries would meet soon to thrash out the terms of the reconciliation before reopening embassies in each other’s capitals in two months.

Why did Saudi Arabia reach out to Iran?

• West Asia has been undergoing strategic realignments in recent years.
  • In 2020, the UAE became the first Arab country to normalize relations with Israel in a quarter century.
  • In the following years, Israel and Arab countries deepened their partnerships.
• One of the key drivers of these realignments is the U.S.’s deprioritisation of West Asia.
  • The U.S. has bigger foreign policy challenges in its hand now such as the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
• Additionally, relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have been rocky in recent years.
  • The bedrock of the partnership was America’s security guarantees in return for Saudi oil.
  • The U.S. is now one of the top oil producers in the world and is not as dependent on the Gulf Arabs as it used to be during the Cold War.
    • This allowed American Presidents to expedite the U.S.’s deprioritisation of the region.
  • When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019 (for which Iran was widely blamed), the U.S. looked away.
• This seems to have prompted the Saudis to look for alternative solutions for the Iran problem.
  • The solution they came up with was to reach out to the Iranians.

What led Iran to accept the deal?

• Iran is going through one of the toughest phases of economic isolation and domestic pressure.
  • Tehran knows that getting a reprieve from Western sanctions is not a near-term possibility and at home, despite its crackdown, protests refuse to die down.
  • Its economy is deteriorating and its currency is struggling.
    • Iran wanted Chinese investments and support for its currency.
• Therefore, a deal with Saudi Arabia, under China’s mediation, could open economic lifelines for Iran.
  • And strategically, Iran knows that such a deal could complicate American efforts to rally Arab countries and Israel against it.
• So economically and strategically, a reconciliation is beneficial for Tehran.

What does China gain from the deal?

• China has economic, regional and strategic interests in playing the role of a peace broker in West Asia.
  • China is the world’s largest oil buyer and stability in the energy market is essential for its continued rise.
• Regionally, the agreement marks China’s arrival as a major power in West Asia.
  • If one looks at all the major peace initiatives in the region in the post-War world, the U.S. was a constant presence.
    • But in the Saudi-Iran reconciliation, the U.S. is absent.
  • This points to larger changes under way in the global order.
• Besides, China is also trying to send a clear message to countries in the Global South.

How does the U.S. look at the deal?

• U.S. officials have welcomed the reconciliation.
  • The public narrative is that peace between two of the major rival powers in West Asia would help stabilize the region and benefit the global energy market.
• But from a strategic point of view, the U.S. would be facing unpleasant questions about the agreement.

What are the diplomatic challenges?

• Regional security needs the revival of the nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the management of Israel’s aggressiveness.
  • Although doubts remain on whether the U.S.’s sharply polarized domestic scene will allow such an agreement which would dilute sanctions on Iran.
• Israel’s domestic politics, also deeply polarized and dominated by the extreme right wing, is also expected to obstruct the renewal of the JCPOA and maintain a hostile posture towards Iran.
• Saudi-Iran differences will be difficult to resolve: they result from Saudi Arabia’s deep sense of strategic vulnerability vis-à-vis its northern neighbor and concerns that might destabilize regional states through the use of Shia proxies.
  • Iran will need to play a more proactive role to assure its neighbor of its benign intentions, an effort that would gain credibility with China’s active engagement with the two regional powers.

Way Forward:

• The agreement addresses the most serious regional confrontation — it reduces regional tensions and puts in place the bases for further dialogue on improving relations and engaging on contentious issues.
• China has affirmed that its role in West Asian affairs is likely to get more active and substantial.
  • This poses challenges for Indian diplomacy.
• However, recognising that the management of its ties with China remains its diplomatic priority, India will need to engage with China in West Asia where they have a broad gamut of shared interests in energy security, free and open sea lanes, logistical connectivity, and, above all, regional stability.
  • Here, they can work together to further mutual and regional interests.

Conclusion:

• China’s increase of influence in the Middle East is not a theory anymore, but is happening today in practice.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. “Increasing footprint of China in West Asia presents challenges to the diplomacy of India”. Critically analyze the statement. Also, suggest measures to solve this issue.
(250 Words).