Relevance: GS-2: Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate, bilateral groupings and agreements, effect of policies

Key phrases: North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO-Russia Council

Context

• The NATO-Russia Council (NRC) convened on 12th January, 2022 in Brussels for the first time since July 2019. The talks were held in the backdrop of rising tensions due to mobilisation of about 100,000 Russian troops along Russia’s border with Ukraine.
• Recently the Geneva talks between the United States and Russia over NATO’s expansion and over Russia's troop buildup on its border with Ukraine remained inconclusive.

What is North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)?

• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an alliance of 30 countries from North America and Europe committed to fulfilling the goals of the North Atlantic Treaty signed on 4 April 1949.
• In accordance with the Treaty, the fundamental role of NATO is to safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries by political and military means.
• NATO is playing an increasingly important role in crisis management and peacekeeping.

Evolution of NATO-Russia relations

• NATO-Russia relations started after the end of the Cold War, when Russia joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (1991) and the Partnership for Peace programme (1994).
• The two sides made a reciprocal commitment to work together to build a stable, secure and undivided continent on the basis of partnership and common interest in 1997.
• Cooperation was suspended in April 2014 in response to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine, which the Allies condemn in the strongest terms. Political channels of communication remain open.

What is Ukraine Issue ?

• Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there.
• Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards European institutions and it is now demanding it never joins NATO.
• It was when Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president that Russia moved in, seizing, then annexing Ukraine's southern Crimean peninsula. Russian-backed separatists then captured large swathes of Ukraine's two eastern regions collectively known as the Donbas.

What is the situation at the Ukrainian border?

• Russia is accused of massing 100,000 combat-ready troops just across Ukraine's eastern border.

Ukraine has been fighting a pro-Moscow insurgency in two breakaway regions since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. This was the first time since WWII that a European nation had annexed territory from another country. The region that Russia annexed in 2014 is now under Russian-backed separatists and even today fighting continues there.

What does Russia want from NATO?

• Moscow has accused NATO countries of "pumping" Ukraine with weapons and the US of stoking tensions.
• Russia has bolstered its support in rebel-held areas of Ukraine, providing Russian passports for 500,000 people, so if it does not get what it wants then it could justify any action it takes as in protection of its own citizens.
• Russia's main demand is to stop NATO's expansion any further to the east, which includes Ukraine and Georgia.
• Russia also wants NATO to abandon military activity in Eastern Europe, which would mean pulling out its combat units from Poland and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and not deploying missiles in countries such as Poland and Romania. In short, it wants NATO to return to its pre-1997 borders.
• Russia is annoyed by Western military exercises in the Black Sea.
• Russia has also proposed a treaty with the US barring nuclear weapons from being deployed beyond their national territories.

Why Russia opposes NATO’s further expansion into Eastern Europe?

• The source of Russia’s staunch opposition to NATO is its deep insecurity. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 a substantially weakened Russian Federation saw NATO’s continued expansion into Eastern Europe as a violation of the post-Cold War consensus.
• Russia responded militarily in 2008 when Georgia was considering joining NATO, and in 2014, it took Crimea from Ukraine after the pro-Russian regime in Kiev was toppled by protests.

Deadlock between Russia and Western powers

• USA has publicly stated that it won’t shut NATO’s door on potential future members.
• Further, the West sees Russia as an aggressive, abrasive and destabilising giant that breathes down the neck of Europe.

How far will the West go for Ukraine?

• The US has made clear it is committed to helping Ukraine defend its "sovereign territory". President Biden spoke of imposing measures "like none he's ever seen" if Ukraine was attacked. But he also stressed that deploying US troops unilaterally was "not on the table".
• The biggest economic tool could be threatening to disconnect Russia's banking system from the international Swift payment system.
• There could also be measures targeting Russia's RDIF sovereign wealth fund or restrictions on banks converting rubles into foreign currency.
• Another key threat is to prevent the opening of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany, and approval for that is currently being decided by Germany's energy regulator. Germany Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made clear if there is any further Russian escalation then "this gas pipeline could not come into service".

What is Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF)?

• The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) is a leading sovereign fund, with a reserved capital of $10 billion under management.
• RDIF was established in 2011. In all transactions, RDIF acts as a co-investor alongside major international investors, playing the role of a catalyst in attracting direct investment into Russia.
• RDIF has invested with foreign partners in more than 100 projects totaling over 2.1 trillion rubles and covering 95% of the regions of the Russian Federation.
• RDIF has established joint strategic partnerships with leading international co-investors from more than 18 countries totalling more than $40 billion.

Why did NATO and Russian officials meet?

• The NRC forum for talks was set up two decades ago. However, meetings paused when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and have only taken place sporadically since.
• In recent months, NATO allies have raised concerns that Russia could be preparing to invade Ukrainian territory — akin to the 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
• Moscow has been seeking assurances that NATO would not expand further east.
• Russia has also been pushing to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the alliance.
• Ahead of January 12's meeting, NATO held talks with Ukraine, and Moscow held talks with Washington.
• Russia is also due to hold talks with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on January 13.

What does the meeting mean for Russia-West relations?

• Talks held on January 12th represented a "limited success" for Russia. However, the fact that all 30 NATO states came together with Russia is very significant, because the NATO-Russia council body — created to have such kind of dialogue — has been dead for almost two and a half years
• Since annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, Russia has been essentially isolated on the international stage. NATO expressing willingness to reestablish missions in Moscow and Brussels, as well as schedule more talks, is a positive sign for Russia.

Conclusion

• Russia is still battling with the economic costs of his Crimea annexation, which has left a wide chasm in Russia’s ties with Europe. Further aggression on Ukraine might serve his tactical interests but could leave a deadly blow to any plan to bring the Russia-Europe ties back on track. A war is in nobody’s interests. Russia and the West should keep that in mind when they sit down for the next round of talks.
• For all practical purposes, Ukraine and Georgia, both faced with separatist conflicts, cannot join NATO in the foreseeable future. NATO could use this reality as a policy promise to calm Russian nerves.
• Finding a solution to the crisis will not be easy and both the sides will have to get out of their Cold War mentality and build mutual confidence in their relations through meaningful dialogues and reduce tension and restore normalcy.

Source: The Hindu, BBC, AFP, CNN, The Guardian