Date: 12/01/2023

Relevance: GS-2: Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora; bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Key Phrases: Balance of power, Lessons from the Ukraine-Russia war, India’s foreign policy, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on the world.

Context:

• It has been more than 10 months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but the conflict is not over yet and security experts are trying to understand Russian President Putin’s real intentions for going to war.
• The current situation also offers many lessons to other emerging and established powers which need to be looked into.

The war has undermined the Image of Russia

• Before the war, the Russian president had created an aura of power around himself and Russia.
  • He disrupted Georgia’s ambition to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
  • Made forays into West Asia neutralizing Israel and Turkey, both American allies.
  • Took Crimea without a fight and turned Russia again into an energy superpower.
• As of now, Russia’s superior troops have been struggling to cope with battlefield setbacks in Ukraine.
• There is a sense of ambiguity as the Russian objectives are not clear because
  • Russia continues to fight but there have been tactical setbacks.
  • When Russian troops were retreating, annexation of four Ukrainian regions was announced which practically closed off the path towards talks.
  • The Russian president then offered talks even as Russian missiles kept pounding Ukrainian infrastructure.

Shaping of a new world order

• The world order has been historically multipolar but in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the U.S came to prominence as a unilateral power in the 1990s.
• In recent years, however, there have been signs of the passing of American unilateralism. America’s wars in the Muslim world did not proceed as Washington had expected.
• As the U.S. got stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia became more aggressive, Iran more defiant, and China more powerful.
• The Ukraine war, Europe's largest land war since World War II, is the most visible manifestation of America's declining unilateralism.
• Thus, the war itself offers some key lessons to understand contemporary geopolitics.

Lessons to be learnt

• The US unilateralism is declining
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a NATO ally, would go down in history as one of the pivotal moments of 21st century geopolitics which is the manifestation of the weakening of the US.
  • The world is returning to its essential anarchy (as the realists say) in which great powers compete for maximizing their powers.
  • The U.S. seems to have realized that the world has changed and its response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine shows it.
• A possible grouping of the world powers
  • The US has taken pains to keep the Western alliance together.
  • It wants a coalition of democracies against dictatorships and other such authoritarian regimes.
  • The US admits that the ‘rules-based order’ i.e., an American-centric world faces systemic challenges from Russia and China.
• Limitations of great powers
  • The Ukraine war also tells us about the limitations of great powers in shaping the outcome of conflicts with smaller ones.
  • For instance, the failed intervention of the U.S. in Vietnam, its invasion of Afghanistan, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan.
  • But historical examples do not deter offensive nations and Russia had miscalculated the power of Ukrainian nationalism and the resolve of the West.
  • The West has been supplying Ukraine with money, weapons including advanced rocket systems and artillery, intelligence and mercenaries.
  • The constant support of the west has not only kept Ukraine on its feet but the West has been tactically using the Ukrainian territory to weaken Russia who has been under tremendous pressure.

China’s takeaway

• On Taiwan issue
  • If Russia successfully takes control of Ukraine, this encourages China to do the same with Taiwan.
  • Additionally, if Ukraine (together with the rest of the West, led by the USA), is successful in dealing with Russia, China will not be tempted to invade Taiwan.
• On China-Russia bonhomie
  • During the Cold War, the U.S. exploited the divisions between the Soviet Union and China to prevent the formation of a strong Eurasian alliance.
  • But now China and Russia are exploiting this Ukraine conflict to take their relationships to a new level. This is definitely a bad sign for the West and the USA.
• On growing power of the dragon
  • China would like to see the U.S. being distracted in Europe while it strengthens its ties with Russia and spreads its influence elsewhere.
  • It is the U.S. who needs introspection whether the time, resources and energy it is spending on Ukraine (to weaken Russia) is worth it in a changing world where China is its most powerful rival.

Conclusion

• The Russia-Ukraine issue is certainly a complex international political issue which makes it difficult to choose between politics and moral imperative for countries like India.
• The lessons from the Ukraine -Russia conflict can surely help India establish a balance between politics and moralist standpoint and mould its foreign policy in order to achieve its motto of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. The Russia-Ukraine War has changed the global power balance and paved the way for a new world order with a more active role of emerging powers such as India, Critically Analyze. (250 words).