Date: 15/03/2023

Relevance: GS-3: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, India and its neighborhood- relations.

Key Phrases: Naval Base, Great Nicobar Island, Malacca Straits, Land-Centric Strategy, Maritime Geography, Battlespace, Offensive Oceanic Strategy.

Context:

• The Indian government has embarked on a bold, imaginative, and strategic initiative by quietly constructing a comprehensive naval base on Great Nicobar Island.

Key Highlights:

• Positioned squarely at the entrance to the Malacca Straits and just 90 miles from the tip of Indonesia, this move is akin to exposing the queen in a game of chess to directly threaten the opposing king.
  • It poses an immediate challenge to China's expansion into the Indian Ocean, stretching all the way to Djibouti and Gwadar.
  • Establishing a naval base on Great Nicobar would serve as a crucial element in a larger maritime strategy to counter Chinese aggression in the Himalayas.
• Despite importing over 65% of its oil, China remains deeply vulnerable due to its dependence on imported oil for its Indian Ocean lines of communication.
  • Given this vulnerability, one might expect Beijing to approach the Himalayan LAC with caution.
  • However, China appears to firmly believe that India is entrenched in a shortsighted land-centric strategy and ignores the strategic advantages offered by its maritime geography.

Tactical Scenario:

• The Malacca Straits and South China Sea's tactical scenario is currently influenced by the intelligence sharing and communications agreements established by the Quad.
  • These agreements would be activated in times of crisis, giving India access to the entire tactical picture in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea.
  • In response to an aggressive move by China on the northern LAC, India could threaten to block China-bound tankers in the Malacca Straits.
• With its new base in Great Nicobar, India could utilize fighter aircraft directed by its own air early warning system to achieve information dominance over the Malacca Straits.
  • If the PLA attempts to send a task force to investigate the tanker stoppage, they would fall into the trap of a strategically constructed "killing ground" dominated by Indian aircraft and missile-armed ships and submarines.

Tactical Calculations:

• Whether or not India is willing to commit to a new oceanic strategy to replace its tired land-centric approach will determine the success of the plan.
  • The establishment of a new base in Great Nicobar could either serve as a minor reconnaissance base or as a full-fledged Pearl Harbour, depending on India's political intentions.
  • The latter would provide a strong enough presence to deter Chinese aggression and risk of escalation with India.
• This strategy aligns with the current revolution in military affairs, where information dominance and denial of information to the enemy are crucial for victory.
  • With a base in Great Nicobar, India would have access to the Malacca Straits, just a hundred miles away, while the nearest Chinese base in Sanya would be 1,500 miles away.
• It is rumoured that the Chinese have awarded a major dredging contract off Gwadar and that their intention is to operate an aircraft carrier in support of Djibouti and base it in Gwadar.
  • With access to the Malacca Straits in Indian hands, these deep laid plans would blow away in the wind.

Strategic Rules Governing War:

• India’s bold action illustrates once again that the strategic rules governing war have not changed over the years.
  • Throughout history, great military commanders like Alexander the Great and Napoleon have always fought on grounds of their own choosing.
• Similarly, at sea, choosing the battleground means creating a dominant battlespace where information dominance is achieved, and the enemy is blinded.
  • Under these conditions, the Chinese numerical advantage becomes irrelevant, as demonstrated by the recent conflict in Ukraine.
  • In Ukraine, the local satellite information is made available right down to the platoon commander’s level, on the cell phone via US satellite internet.

Conclusion:

• In the current state of affairs between India and China, there is a fear that China could potentially overwhelm India if it chooses to do so.
  • This fear is not unfounded and is based on tactical calculations.
• However, this dynamic could change with India's strategic move. The downstream effect will be seen in the coming years when China begins to treat India as an equal, because again, tactical calculation will make the truth obvious in Beijing.

Source: The Indian Express

Mains Question:

Q. Discuss how the establishment of a new naval base in the Andaman Islands by India will compel Beijing to review its strategy. (150 words).