Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests. Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora.

Key Phrases: Strategic ambivalence, Territorial integrity, Sovereignty, Hard power, Human Spaceflight Programme, Special military operations

Why in News?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined that Delhi will for now stick to a path of strategic ambivalence on the Ukraine crisis. This is a pragmatic choice, one that reflects the complexities of a realist world and Delhi’s own positions on territorial integrity and sovereignty, its own concerns about its unresolved borders, it's difficult relationship with its two northern neighbors.

India-Russia Friendship:

• Russia remains India’s biggest and time-tested supplier of military hardware:
  • At the height of the crisis with China in Ladakh, it was to Moscow that Defence Minister Rajnath Singh travelled to ensure that there would be no cut-back in military supplies.
  • Russia has boosted India’s defence capability against China with the S-400 air defence system.
  • The joint military programmes between India and Russia include BrahMos cruise missile programme, Sukhoi Su-30MKI programme etc.
• Support at the United Nation: Moscow is also a reliable ally in the UN Security Council. India-Russia ties have ensured that Delhi has not been entirely left out of the conversation on Afghanistan, and in Central Asia, while also providing some leverage with the US.
• Russia is an important partner for India in the area of peaceful use of nuclear energy. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is being built in India with Russian cooperation.
• Recently, An MoU between ISRO and ROSCOSMOS on Joint Activities in the field of Human Spaceflight Programme was signed during the 19th Bilateral Summit.

India’s relationship with West:

The US, the European Union, and UK are all vital partners, and India’s relations with each of them, and the Western world in general, go far beyond the sum of their parts.

• In the UNSC, India has counted on France’s unstinted backing on many issues.
• India has relied on western support as it deals with an aggressive China on the Line of Actual Control.
• The elevation of the Quad (US, Australia, India and Japan) to the summit level recently.
• Recently the West has also been supportive to India’s aim to contain Pakistan’s support for cross-border terrorism.

Moving away from neutrality but maintaining balance:

• Prime Minister Modi’s appeal to President Putin for a “cessation of violence” and for all sides to return to the dialogue table was certainly a notch up from India’s earlier explicitly neutral stance, and carried a hint of the compulsions to get off the fence, though still largely maintaining a balance.

Development of grim situation:

• There might be large-scale civilian casualties by the Russian military in Ukraine, it cannot be ruled out that Delhi’s position may change or get calibrated further.
• A vote is scheduled soon on a UNSC resolution on Russia’s “special military operations” in Ukraine, and India’s line will be tested.
• Indians in Ukraine: More than 20000 Medical students are hiding in bomb shelters and appealing for the help.
• World war scenario is shaping up with an increase in hard power rivalry and escalation of the situation.

The chances of getting a CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) waiver for the import of S-400 missiles from Russia have receded further. Russia too will have expectations from India. Harmonising these counter pulls will be anything but easy.

What should be India’s response:

• Delhi must talk continually to all sides, and engage with all of its partners, keeping in mind that there is no justification for the violation of any country’s territorial sovereignty.
• India should keep in mind that distance from the theatre of conflict no longer insulates any country from its effects.
  • India’s economy has already felt the shock of this “regional” conflict in a corner of Europe, and other consequences are apparent, as in the ongoing evacuation of thousands of students.
• India must also make it clear to coercing countries that their “with us or against us” formulations are hardly constructive. There are no innocents in this conflict.

Conclusion:

• The best course is for all parties to step back and focus on preventing an all-out war, rather than divide the world and return it to the days of the Cold War.
• “India will struggle to tread the middle ground as Russia - China and US led blocs consolidate their global coalition” – C. Rajamohan

Sources: Indian Express

Mains Question:

Q.With the growing imminent threat of war and re-balancing of power after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, what should be India’s response. Discuss. [250 words].