Relevance: GS-3: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests. Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora.

Key Phrases: Expansionism, Nuclear Deterrence, “Nuclear Sharing” Arrangements, Pacifism, Rearmament, Sovereignty And Territorial Integrity, South China Sea, Geopolitics, Alliance Without Limits.

Why in News?

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling in Ukraine, which did create political ripples in Europe, has triggered a far more consequential debate on the importance of atomic weapons in deterring Chinese expansionism. For those facing Chinese wrath in Asia, it is not difficult to buy into the proposition that Russia would have thought twice before invading Ukraine if Kyiv had nuclear weapons.

Growing Nuclear concerns in Asia:

• Japan: Recently, the former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, called for a national debate on hosting American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil.
• South Korea: In South Korea, which is electing its president this week, front-runner Yoon Suk-Yeol has talked of strengthening Seoul’s nuclear deterrence against both Pyongyang and Beijing.
• Taiwan, which is in the cross-hairs of President Xi Jinping’s regional strategy, is reportedly developing a nuclear-powered submarine that could offer some deterrence against a Chinese invading force.
• Australia, which is working with the UK and the US to build nuclear-powered submarines, is accelerating the project after the Ukraine invasion.

What is the nuclear situation in Europe?

• There are two nuclear weapon powers in Europe — Britain and France. Although the British and French arsenals are modest, they do figure in Moscow’s nuclear assessments.
• Russia is also aware of the “nuclear sharing” arrangements between the US and some European allies — Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
  • Under this framework, European allies host US nuclear weapons on their soil and authorise their armed forces to deliver American nuclear weapons on Russia.

Putin has certainly shaken Europe out of its prolonged holiday from geopolitics, and is forcing it to commit more resources to the defence of Europe and strengthen the continent’s unity against Russia. Nothing illustrates the dramatic shift in European mood than the German decision to discard its entrenched pacifism and embark on a course of rearmament.

Why the growing need for nuclear deterrence?

• Russia invades Ukraine knowing it does not pose any threat of nuclear attack. If Ukraine had nuclear weapons, such open war could have been avoided.
• Failure of NATO’s military planners and alliance refusing to be drawn into a firefight with Russia in Ukraine.
  • As the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Abe called for an unambiguous American commitment to defend Taiwan. The current US policy does not explicitly state that its armed forces will come to the rescue of Taiwan if it is attacked by China.
• Prospect of China emulating Russia and invading Taiwan has begun to concentrate the minds of Asian leaders.
  • After all, China had been nibbling away at the territories of its neighbours whether it was in the South China Sea or in the great Himalayas.
• Not following Rule of law and treaty: China has broken its commitments on Hong Kong and absorbed it forcibly.
  • Ukraine agreed in 1994 to give up the nuclear weapons that it inherited from the Soviet Union in return for guarantees on Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Clearly, those legal guarantees were no substitute for nuclear weapons.

In the past, all the East Asian neighbours of China had toyed with the development of independent nuclear arsenals. The US actively discouraged Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to renounce nuclear weapons in return for American security commitments, including the shelter of the American “nuclear umbrella”.

There is a growing concern in the region about whether the US nuclear umbrella or the so-called extended deterrence will work against the rapidly growing military power and nuclear clout of China.

Concerns for India:

• China Russia Alliance: One was the unveiling of an “alliance without limits” between Russia and China at a summit meeting in Beijing on February 4. The summit saw an unprecedented commitment by the two sides to stand by each other. As Putin becomes more dependent on China, Russia is bound to back Xi Jinping’s ambitions in Asia.

Many in Asia, including India, continue to hope that Russia will play an independent role in the region

Conclusion:

• One element of the debate is the fact that nuclear weapons remain the greatest deterrent, especially against a vastly superior adversary. For now, Asian countries focus is on strengthening the military alliance with the US and boosting national defence capabilities including advanced missile systems.

Sources: Indian Express   Times of India

Mains Question:

Q. Nuclear weapons armament could provide a way to prepare for the possibility that China may emulate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and invade Taiwan. Comment. [250 words].