Geopolitics Without Geo-economics, A Fool’s Errand : Daily Current Affairs

Date: 20/09/2022

Relevance: GS-2: India and its neighborhood- relations; bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Key Phrases: Free trade agreements, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, foreign trade in Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Context:

  • In recent times India has been active in the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific and has managed to emerge as a major pivot of the global Indo-Pacific strategy, manifested by its role in the Quad and its cooperation with the ASEAN countries.

Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

  • It is a pact between two or more nations to reduce trade barriers to imports and exports of services and goods among them.
  • The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.
  • Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange.

Why is India taking geopolitics and geoeconomics separately?

  • Today India seems to lack a vision for the Indo-Pacific in the long term as it hasn't focused on the geo-economics of the Indo-Pacific despite the fact that modern geoeconomics is the foundation of geopolitics.
  • Even though India is an active partner in the Indo-Pacific and Quad, it still has not joined the region's key multilateral trading agreements.
    • For example: India’s refusal to join the trade pillar of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) while deciding to join the three other pillars of the IPEF - supply chains, tax and anti-corruption, and clean energy.
  • India’s move to stay out of IPEF, two years after it walked out of the negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is surprising.
    • These agreements lay at the heart of the Indo-Pacific and could potentially shape the economic character of the broader Indo-Pacific region.
    • It is also in contravention of the government’s recent policies of pushing for foreign trade agreements.

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

  • About
    • It is a US-led initiative that aims to strengthen economic partnerships among participating countries to enhance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • The IPEF was launched in 2021 with a dozen initial partners who together represent 40% of the world GDP.
  • Objectives
    • It will produce many immediate benefits on the economic front in terms of cooperation in investment and technology development for clean energy.
    • The IPEF is not a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but allows members to negotiate on the parts they want to engage.
    • The negotiations will be along four main “pillars” in the IPEF
      • Supply-chain resilience
      • Clean energy, decarbonisation & infrastructure
      • Taxation & anti-corruption
      • Fair & resilient trade.
  • India’s position
    • India’s joining of IPEF is a strong statement of commitment to Indo-Pacific goals, and to broadening regional economic cooperation
    • India has not joined the “trade pillar” but has joined all other 3 pillars.

What is QUAD?

  • About
    • It is the grouping of four democratic countries –India, Australia, the United States, and Japan.
    • The idea of Quad was first mooted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007.
      • However, the idea couldn’t move ahead with Australia pulling out of it, apparently due to Chinese pressure.
    • In 2017 the idea materialized when India, Australia, the US, and Japan, came together and formed this “quadrilateral” coalition.
  • Significance
    • All four nations find a common ground of being democratic nations and also support the common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security.
    • The Quad is billed as four democracies with a shared objective to ensure and support a “free, open and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region.

Is India favouring bilateral trade agreements?

  • The current government in its first term was skeptical of free trade agreements and thus showcased lack of policy interest in promoting external trade and engaging in free trade negotiations.
  • In the wake of COVID-19 it changed its stand and now is pushing for foreign trade agreement aggressively.
  • India concluded a free trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates earlier this year.
    • India has signed Early Harvest Agreements with Australia and the United Kingdom and several more agreements are being negotiated.
  • The recent decision to stay out of the IPEF shows a clear policy of India that it favours bilateral agreements, and is not keen on multilateral, plurilateral and even soft agreements such as the IPEF.

A regressive step and many challenges of opting out of multilateralism

  • Although India has its own concerns regarding the multilateral trade agreements, its policy of staying out of various regional trading agreements is a regressive policy decision.
  • The absence of the world’s fifth largest economy (India) from various regional trading platforms will invariably boost China’s geo-economic hegemony in Asia.
    • China’s share in global trade today is 15% and India accounts for about 2%
  • For India, it would be hard to integrate itself into the regional and global supply chains without being a part of important regional multilateral trading agreements.
  • Addressing the deeper challenges plaguing the investment and business environment in India is not possible without joining some of these multilateral trading arrangements
    • It is evident from the fact that firms leaving China have gone to Vietnam.
  • India’s maritime security will take a toll in absence of economic stakes of regional countries in India.
    • Without creating economic stakes with the states of the region, India’s ‘Act East’ policy will revert to its earlier avatar - ‘Look East’.
    • It is also important for India to become part of trading arrangements which have major non-regional states so as to become a major part of the region’s supply chains.

China challenge will still prevail

  • India’s concern of China dominating the Indian market and weaponized by China for geopolitical purposes is a reason for not joining Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other such trade agreements.
  • But India needs to face it because even despite the military stand-off on the Line of Actual Control, India-China trade has only increased in the past year.
  • The less India engages with the region economically, with China doing more, India might risk getting economically isolated in the broader region.

Rethinking India’s geo-economic choices is the way forward

  • India should rethink its geo-economic choices to enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.
  • It should reconsider its decision and rethink on the trade pillar of the IPEF, and its decision of not to join the RCEP
  • It may seek to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) from which the U.S. walked out and China is seeking to join.
  • Even if India doesn't want to allow trade with China, India should start with the IPEF and the CPTPP, both of which do not have China as a member
  • India should also proactively lobby to become a part of the Minerals Security Partnership, the U.S.-led 11-member grouping to secure supply chains of critical minerals.

Conclusion

  • If India seeks to be a part of the Asian century and its economic growth story it must let go of its historical hesitations and phobias regarding multilateral trading arrangements.
  • Therefore the need of the hour is to change its current policy of pursuing geopolitical ends without geoeconomic engagements.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. “Geoeconomics cannot be divorced from geopolitics” How India can achieve its geopolitical goals through a policy of liberal geoeconomic engagements in Asia-Pacific? What are the challenges and solutions thereof, Discuss in light of the above statement (250 words).