Date: 31/12/2022

Relevance: GS-2: India and its neighbourhood- relations.

Key Phrases: India Out protests, Political Factions, Polarising Political Issue, Maldivian Democratic Party, Lhaviyani Atoll, Uthuru Thila Falhu Harbour Development Deal, India First Foreign Policy, Friendly Big Neighbour.

Why in News?

• The conviction of former Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen by a criminal court in the Maldives just a year ahead of general elections could affect his plans to lead the PPM-PNC opposition alliance.
• He faces 11 years in prison and a $5 million fine after being found guilty of corruption and money laundering during his tenure as President (2013-2018).

Key Highlights:

• The Maldives Constitution disqualifies any candidate convicted of criminal charges and sentenced to a term of more than a year unless they are later acquitted or a three-year period has elapsed since their release.
• Mr. Yameen had a rough relationship with India during his presidential term after he declared an emergency in the island state.
• As opposition leader he has spearheaded the “India Out” campaign, and has been unrepentant despite the latest verdict, trying to link his confinement to pressure from India.

What is India Out Campaign?

• The India Out campaign began in 2020, on March 19 at Naifaru in Lhaviyani atoll when opposition parties in the Maldives targeted the Maldivian Democratic Party government for its growing proximity to India.
• Accusing it of “selling off Maldives” to India, the opposition demanded the release of Yameen from prison – he was jailed on graft charges at the time.
• The campaign gathered pace after Maldives signed the military agreement with India and snowballed following Yameen’s release from prison.

Current state of India and Maldives Relations:

1. India First Foreign Policy:
   • President Solih adopted an ‘India first’ foreign policy.
   • In the past four years, India has emerged as the Maldives’s main security and economic partner, committing $1.4 billion towards its socio-economic development needs.
2. Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTH) harbour development deal:
   • In February 2021, India signed the Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTH) harbour development deal with Male to develop the National Defence Force Coast Guard Harbour.
   • The Indian and Maldivian governments maintain that the Uthuru Thila Falhu facility will help Maldives surveil its waters better.
   • The harbour would enable the Maldivian government to protect its maritime interests on its own thereby enhancing its sovereignty.
3. Friendly Big Neighbour:
   • India has historically played an important role in the Maldives as a friendly big neighbour.
   • To wean Maldives away from Chinese loans, India extended it financial assistance and has undertaken massive infrastructure projects.
   • India’s profile and presence in the Maldives have grown remarkably in recent years.

What are the challenges associated with the Relations ?

1. Radicalisation:
   • The number of Maldivians drawn towards terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based jihadist groups has been increasingly giving rise to the possibility of Pakistan based terror groups using remote Maldivian islands as a launch pad for terror attacks against India and Indian interests.
2. China Factor:
   • China’s rise in the Indian Ocean region has raised the strategic profile of Maldives where both countries vied for influence.
   • Now, while Mr. Yameen is trying to regain his lost support by shoring up Maldivian nationalism and anti-India sentiments, the MDP is trying to counter it with another nationalist narrative.
   • It argues that ties with India, the closest big neighbour of the Maldives, is important for the country’s security, including food security.
   • The country signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and borrowed heavily from China for infrastructure projects.
3. Whirlpool of the Indian Ocean archipelago’s domestic politics:
   • Former President Abdulla Yameen, who is the leader of the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), said that if his party returned to power in elections next year, his government would cancel all agreements with India.
   • Under existing agreements, he claimed, Indian military vessels could enter the Maldives’ Exclusive Economic Zone by simply informing Maldivian authorities rather than seeking their permission.

Way Forward:

• Given the hostile relationship, as well as Mr. Yameen’s past close links with China, there may be some relief in India over the possibility of Mr. Yameen’s disqualification.
• However, the Government needs to tread carefully when it comes to domestic politics in its close maritime neighbour as India’s infrastructure aid, credit lines, loans and commissioning of various projects (Greater Male Connectivity Project, Hanimaadhoo airport, Hulhumale cricket stadium, Gulhifalhu port) have meant high visibility.
• In addition, close ties and high-level military exchanges since 2018 have raised speculation that India is eyeing a base. Thus, India needs to effectively convince the Maldivians about its intentions behind the projects on the island nation.
• The campaign may change the domestic political situation in the Maldives and may set ripples in India’s currently favourable relationship with the country.

Conclusion:

• While Mr. Yameen may not be allowed to run in the next election, this might make space for even more radical elements in the opposition to combine.
• New Delhi must keep a close watch on other parts of Maldivian politics, including the rift between India’s closest friends there, President Solih and former President Nasheed, who is threatening to split the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party.
• Despite having obvious favourites in the polity, New Delhi must actively project the image of a friendly and helpful neighbour without explicitly seeking to sway next year’s election in any direction.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. Without a friendly, peaceful and prosperous South Asia, India’s ambition to be a great power may remain unfulfilled. Examine. (250 words).