Date: 27/01/2023

Relevance: GS-3: Science and Technology- developments and their applications and effects in everyday life.

Key Phrases: Artificial Intelligence, International Migration, Education, Employment, Immigrants, Service Sectors, Productivity, Higher Education, Ageing Populations, Healthcare service.

Context:

• People migrate to other countries to improve their lives. The main pull factor is better education and employment opportunities abroad.
• How would the fast-paced diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) tools alter patterns of international migration?

Recent Pattern:

• Migration for education and employment opportunities abroad, except when forced by civil wars and the like, is a win-win for both sides.
• In recent years, many developed countries, including the United States, Canada, Japan, and Germany, have been facing a labor shortage due to an aging population and a decrease in birth rates.
  • Immigrants have filled this void at both ends of the spectrum, helping high-productivity sectors flourish and keeping wages under control in low-productivity service sectors.
• Indian immigrants in the US are a typical example of high-skilled settlers, while Mexican migrants with lower education and skills tend to work in low-productivity sectors. The latter are still better off in America than they would be back home.
• Overall, foreign-born US residents who are not citizens by birth accounted for around 17% of the civilian labour force in 2019, up from about 7% in 1980.
  • This does not account for the children of earlier immigrants, a second generation of people who are US citizens by birth.

AI in Education:

• The introduction of AI technology has the potential to bring personalized, high-quality education to people's homes, eliminating the need for many individuals to travel abroad for education.
  • However, it's important to note that taking advantage of AI for learning requires a certain level of aptitude, aspiration, and motivation. Many immigrants who travel to the US for education purposes possess these qualities.
  • Additionally, some individuals may still need to travel abroad for core theoretical scientific research.
• In this scenario, the approval stamp of a highly-ranked educational institution would be more valuable than the skills acquired through AI-based learning.
  • This is because the credibility and acceptance of a certification system for AI-based learning are not yet established.
  • Therefore, until such a system is developed, AI tools will not be able to replace the value of a degree from a well-known university.

How Would AI Influence Demand For Migrant Workers??

• It could lead to job displacement in industries like information technology.
  • For example, the need for a human coder for basic coding would decline as AI develops the expertise to convert text into codes, fix bugs and suggest improvements and extensions to existing codes.
  • The same goes for routine maintenance and bug-fixing tasks.
• In contrast, in industries such as healthcare, AI is likely to lead to less job displacement. Patients would still want to talk to a human rather than a robot.
  • Demand for IT engineers is likely to fall with the spread of AI and related tools, but unlikely for nurses and doctors, unlike what was earlier perceived.
• It is likely to take some time before people are comfortable with the idea of robots performing tasks such as cutting hair, babysitting, or cooking.
  • Similarly, drones may not be able to replace delivery people in densely populated urban areas, and robot waiters are unlikely to replace human servers in most restaurants as people prefer interacting with other humans while they are not working with machines.
  • Despite advancements in autonomous vehicles, it is unlikely that they will replace truck and bus drivers in the near future.

AI Specialist:

• The development of AI technology could lead to increased economic growth and job creation in certain industries.
  • A new skill category is emerging, that of the "prompt specialist," who is able to effectively use a wide range of AI tools.
  • These specialists could work remotely from anywhere in the world, potentially reducing the need for migration. However, the wage premium for remote work would likely decrease.
• As AI technology becomes more widely available and cost-effective, the skill premium for highly educated individuals may decrease.
• This would be true for most people, except for those who are able to effectively deploy AI tools, identify and correct errors, and contextualize the output within specific cultures in order to extract the most value

Conclusion:

• As we are still in the early stages of its adoption, it is difficult to fully understand the impact that AI technology will have on international migration patterns for education and employment.
• However, as the use of AI technology expands rapidly, it may lower the demand for certain high-skill occupations in sectors such as IT, which could limit earning potential.
• At the same time, it could also create new job opportunities. Medium and low-skill occupations in service sectors that require face-to-face interactions may be less affected by AI for the time being.

Source: Live Mint

Mains Question:

Q. How would the fast-paced diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) tools alter patterns of international migration? Analyze (150 words)