Date : 23/08/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 3 - Environment - Climate change

Keywords: Food Security, Climate change, High Food Prices, PDS, FCI

Context-

• The conventional connection between monsoon patterns and food prices has evolved as a result of changing climate conditions. The monsoon, once a reliable indicator of food costs, no longer follows the traditional trajectory. Climate variations have disrupted the anticipated correlation between monsoons and price trends, with irregular monsoon progressions and uneven rainfall distribution becoming the norm.

Weather Impact on Crops

• The effects of these changing weather patterns have been particularly felt in crop yields. Unusual weather events have led to significant damage to crops, contributing to unexpected price spikes. The consequences have been evident in various sectors, including the destruction of tomato and onion crops due to extreme weather occurrences. Furthermore, floods in regions like Punjab have led to the decimation of paddy crops, impacting overall production.

Monsoon and Price Shift

• While a typical response would involve a moderation in food inflation as the monsoon advances, the past few months have defied this pattern. Indians are grappling with prolonged high retail inflation driven by soaring food prices. Forecasts predict this trend to persist, with inflation expected to exceed six percent for an extended period.

Extended High Inflation

• Climate change has introduced a new paradigm for food prices. Crop losses resulting from extreme weather events have disrupted supply chains, leading to scarcity and price escalation. The scattered impact of climate-related events accumulates, resulting in significant challenges for food prices.

The Imperative of Climate-Proofing Food Security

• Climate change serves as a catalyst for crises and a multiplier of threats, particularly affecting the most susceptible members of society. Its repercussions on food production, livelihoods, and well-being are projected to propel an additional 600 million individuals into the grip of food insecurity by 2080 while exacerbating child malnutrition.
• The regions most vulnerable to crop failures and the specter of hunger due to climate change, constituting approximately 80% of the global population at risk, are primarily situated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. In these areas, farming households bear a disproportionate burden of poverty and vulnerability.
• The onset of a profound drought triggered either by the El Nino weather phenomenon or as a consequence of climate change can lead to the further impoverishment of millions. This underscores the need to fortify food security against the adverse impacts of a changing climate.

Global Food Price Challenges

• Globally, concerns over food prices have intensified. According to the World Bank's Food Security Update, a substantial portion of lower-middle-income countries—over 90%—are witnessing food price hikes exceeding five percent. The consequences of these trends are significant, with the World Food Programme projecting a staggering 345.2 million people experiencing food insecurity in 2023.

Potential Reversal of Progress

• The predicament poses a potential reversal of the progress achieved in the previous century. Challenges brought about by extreme weather events have emerged as potent adversaries to previous accomplishments in combating hunger. Rising prices compounded by climate-induced events jeopardize food affordability for vulnerable populations.
• The implications extend beyond immediate food access. Rising prices directly correlate with malnutrition and mortality rates. A seemingly modest five percent increase in real food prices translates to elevated risks of wasting and severe wasting. Vulnerable populations in low-income countries are disproportionately impacted by these challenges, with crop losses driven by extreme weather events exacerbating their plight.

Way Forward for Food Security:

• To enhance food security, a proactive approach utilizing the Buffer Stocking Policy is imperative. With the Food Corporation of India (FCI) currently holding rice stocks three times higher than buffer stock norms, the government can strategically unload excess rice through open market operations. This could effectively curtail rice price inflation, bringing it down to approximately 4%. Furthermore, the ample wheat procurement that supports the public distribution system (PDS) offers room for similar open market operations.
• Additionally, addressing the issue of high import duties on fat and skimmed milk powder (SMP) is pivotal. With current import duties standing at 40% and 60% for fat and SMP respectively, a potential policy shift to lower these rates to around 10% to 15% could foster imports and mitigate domestic price discrepancies. Such measures have the potential to stabilize milk and milk product prices.
• To tackle the challenge of fodder price inflation, encouraging the cultivation of fodder crops is essential. This can be facilitated through subsidy programs or incentives, as well as through adopting suitable crop combinations and establishing fodder banks. These efforts would contribute to a more stable fodder supply, vital for livestock and overall food security.
• Additionally, preparedness for drought is crucial, even before the impact of factors like El Nino is officially forecasted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Proactive policy interventions could include the adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties, expanding irrigation infrastructure, considering restrictions on rice exports during scarcity periods, enhancing grain storage and distribution networks, and broadening social protection coverage. By taking such measures, the adverse effects of climate-related challenges can be minimized, reinforcing overall food security.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the evolving relationship between monsoons and food prices highlights the shifting dynamics of our climate. Extreme weather events, a product of climate change, are disrupting historical patterns and reshaping the trajectory of food inflation. These shifts pose formidable obstacles to global food security, necessitating innovative strategies to address the changing landscape of food affordability.

Source - The Hindu