Date: 03/02/2023

Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, India and its neighborhood- relations.

Key Phrases: Sino-Russian Alliance, Triangular Dynamic, geopolitics, Balance of Power, Multipolar, Unipolar, Dominance, Coalitions, Sovereignty.

Context:

• The world has witnessed the debut of a Sino-Russian alliance, and since then, Russia's hostile behavior towards Ukraine and the growing tensions between the West and Russia and China have forced India to reassess its international relations.
• The triangular dynamics between the US, Russia and China has long been the principal factor shaping independent India’s geopolitics.

A Brief Timeline:

• Before the 2010s, both Russia and China sought positive relationships with the US. However, Russia's growing resentment towards the West and China's desire to become the dominant power in Asia has brought them closer together.
• In the year 2022, Vladimir Putin travelled to Beijing to unveil a partnership “without limits” and with no “forbidden areas”.
• Russia and China had a pre-existing strategic partnership before Putin's visit to Beijing in February 2022.
  • The declaration made during that visit established a strong foundation for the two nations to work together in opposition to the West.
• A few days after making the declaration on February 4, Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine.
  • The nature of their discussions regarding Ukraine during Putin and Xi Jinping's meeting in Beijing is unknown.

The Sino-Russian Project:

• It's plausible to assume that the Sino-Russian alliance boosted Moscow's confidence in risking conflict with the West in Europe.
  • Putin aimed for a speedy fall of the Kyiv government and the absorption of Ukraine's sovereignty into Russia through his multi-pronged military offensive.
  • If he had succeeded, it would have dealt a fatal blow to the European security order, which Putin had long criticized.
• A quick, decisive and successful use of force in Ukraine would have deeply divided Europe and fractured the US-led trans-Atlantic security system that dominated the region for more than seven decades.
  • Following the US's disreputable exit from Afghanistan, the absorption of Ukraine by Moscow would have further eroded the US's reputation as a world power.
• If Putin had triumphed in Europe, it would have had a significant impact on Asia as well.
  • It would have reinforced the belief that the US is in a state of decline, weakened US alliances in Asia, and fueled China's desire to fundamentally transform its surroundings.
  • If Putin had successfully taken over Ukraine, it might have smoothed Xi's path to unifying Taiwan through the use of force or coercion.
• However, the Sino-Russian plan to create a post-Western global order was disrupted in Ukraine.
  • The bravery of the Ukrainian President prevented the quick fall of the Kyiv government, leading to a massive mobilization of military aid from the Western world.
  • Russia has suffered substantial losses in terms of military equipment and manpower, and Moscow is now facing tough Western economic sanctions.

Where Does This Leave The Sino-Russian Alliance?

• First, instead of ending US dominance in the global system, Putin and Xi have actually helped to rekindle Western unity under American leadership.
  • The Russian invasion has also sparked fear of China's territorial expansionism in Asia, leading to an enhancement of US bilateral alliances with Australia and Japan.
  • The US has significantly increased its military and political support for Taipei, making it more challenging for Xi to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
• Second, the Sino-Russian alliance and the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in Japan and Germany, two historically reluctant and peaceful nations, joining the fight against Moscow and Beijing.
  • Their involvement greatly changes the balance of power between the West and the Moscow-Beijing axis both are now committed to increasing their defense spending.
• Third, if Russia and China thought they could dominate Eurasia through an alliance, Washington is doing something similar to bring its alliances and partnerships in Europe and Asia closer.
  • Leaders of America’s Asian allies join for the first time a NATO summit last June in Madrid. NATO, in turn, has promised to take a greater interest in shaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power.
• Fourth, there is a growing prospect that Moscow will become more beholden to Beijing after Putin’s military misadventure in Ukraine.
  • The poor Russian strategic performance may have diminished Putin’s standing with Xi and complicated China’s plans, but Beijing is unlikely to abandon Moscow.
  • A weakened Putin will remain a valuable asset for Xi even as Beijing seeks to blunt some of the new Western hostility to China.

What Are Its Implications For India?

• India’s discomfort in the messy ménage a trois with Russia and China will only grow. The Sino-Russian alliance puts India in a terrible predicament.
  • China can ramp up, at will, the military pressure on the disputed border with India. Delhi depends on Russian military supplies to cope with the PLA challenge.
  • Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing. This is certainly not a nice place for Delhi to be in.
• Furthermore, India's reliance on Russian arms has limited its stance on Ukraine and impacted its relationship with Europe and the US.
  • While the Russian partnership was once seen as crucial to India's "strategic autonomy", the dependence on Russian arms is now the main factor limiting India's freedom of action.

Conclusion

• Nearly 30 years ago, India sought to promote a multipolar world by forming alliances with Russia and China as the US dominated the world as a unipolar power.
• However, as India faced the reality of a unipolar Asia dominated by China's rise, it has sought to restore the balance of power by turning to the US and its allies.
• The situation has become more complex and pressing due to the recent Sino-Russian alliance and Putin's conflict in Ukraine.

Source: The Indian Express

Mains Question:

Q. The triangular dynamic between the US, Russia and China has long been the principal factor shaping independent India’s geopolitics. Analyze (250 words).