Date: 13/03/2023

Relevance: GS-2: Bilateral, Regional, and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Key Phrases: AUKUS, Royal Australian Navy, nuclear-powered submarines, U.K. Astute-Class Programme, U.S. export controls, International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), high-enriched uranium (HEU), International Atomic Energy Agency.

Why in News?

• The Australian government is anticipating an announcement about the "optimal pathway" for AUKUS, the security partnership between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, which has implications for the country's plan to operate a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines within the next decade.

Concerns of Australia:

• Australia requires a favourable path to develop deterrence capabilities against potential adversaries, but even the most positive outcome of the AUKUS consultations is not without drawbacks.
• The main issue for Australia is that many of its regional partners oppose the Royal Australian Navy operating nuclear attack submarines.
• Some, such as Indonesia, have been open about their reservations. Others, such as India, despite being politically supportive of AUKUS, appear conflicted about the prospect of these submarines operating in the regional littorals.

Assuaging Concerns:

• Canberra has attempted to assuage concerns by explaining to its counterparts in regional capitals that AUKUS does not provide Australia with nuclear weapons capability, but is rather a means of acquiring nuclear maritime propulsion.
• Officials have even attempted to distinguish AUKUS from other groups such as the Quad, describing the Quad as a normative grouping that lays out a vision for the region and AUKUS as a more technical arrangement.

Options for Canberra: The Three Main Pathways

• U.S. Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarines:
  • The first option, which Australian officials hope will be chosen, is for the U.S. to build nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) for Australia.
  • However, many U.S. policymakers appear sceptical about this option due to the scarcity of these vessels and the country's problems with nuclear submarine construction.
• U.K. Astute-Class Programme:
  • The second option is for the U.K. to expand its Astute-class program to Australia.
  • However, there are challenges in integrating the on-board combat system due to differences between the current Australian and American fleets.
• Trilateral Effort for New Design:
  • The third and most likely option is a trilateral effort to develop a new nuclear submarine design.
  • Australia could announce a modified version of the yet-to-be-launched U.S. Next-Generation Attack Submarine or U.K. Submersible Ship Nuclear Replacement (SSNR) programs, or a completely new AUKUS-class design to be acquired by all three countries.
  • However, this option is not without challenges, with the biggest being how to get around U.S. export controls.

U.S. export controls:

• As Australia prepares to operationalize its nuclear submarine plans through the AUKUS partnership, challenges arise with regard to U.S. export controls.
• Critics say the U.S.’s stringent export control and protocol regime could jeopardize the technology transfer agreement, particularly in areas related to undersea capabilities and electronic warfare.
• To operationalize the pact, the only way forward is to reform the U.S. export control regime by creating a “carve-out” of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). However, it is easier said than done.

N-technology transfer is complicated:

• The developments surrounding AUKUS highlight the difficulties in transferring nuclear technology under the international system.
• For Australia to operate nuclear-powered submarines with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuelled reactors, it will have to exploit a loophole that allows non-nuclear weapon countries to withdraw the fissile material required for submarine reactors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-monitored stockpile.
• The removal of fissile material could set a dangerous precedent, allowing potential proliferators to use naval reactors as a cover for future nuclear weapons development.
• One option, of course, is for Australian submarines to have a lifetime reactor core, but it is unclear if such an arrangement would be viable or, indeed, acceptable to Canberra.

Lessons for India:

• The developments with AUKUS highlight the difficulties in transferring critical technology from the U.S. Even with its closest allies, the U.S. is facing challenges in technology transfer due to its rigid and archaic export control system.
• For India, which has never been in the same league of U.S. partners as Australia, acquiring critical technology from the U.S. remains a daunting prospect.
• Acquiring nuclear propulsion technology is likely to be complicated for India, which is not a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• The complexities involved in the transfer of technology for HEU-fuelled reactors in nuclear attack submarines from the U.S. and U.K., leave India with only one practical option: buying a high-power reactor from France.
• The miniaturized low-enriched uranium (LEU) reactor core for SSNs, though a workable alternative for India, would however impose its own limitations in terms of Indian dependence on France for reactor fuel and the need for periodic refuelling. The developments with AUKUS are then well worth watching.

Conclusion:

• Despite concerns from regional partners, the AUKUS partnership has the potential to provide Australia with increased defence capabilities through the development of nuclear-powered submarines.
• While there are challenges to be overcome, including U.S. export controls and the complexities of nuclear technology transfer, the possibility of a trilateral effort to develop a new submarine design is the most likely option.
• The AUKUS partnership has implications for the strategic contours of maritime Asia and highlights the difficulties involved in transferring critical technology, which is a lesson for India as it seeks to acquire similar capabilities.

Source: The Hindu

Mains Question:

Q. Discuss the implications of the AUKUS partnership on regional security dynamics and its impact on India's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.